Genres

Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.

Text size
Game Market DataSteam market, quoted daily
Live games
191,514
on 30 Sep 2026

Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Niches / Visual Novel / Choose Your Own Adventure

Visual Novel + Choose Your Own Adventure: a typical launch earns $1,435 in its first year

That is the median of 244 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 33 of 497 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 53.5 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 27% on the year before: 384 against 302.

Price
$1,435
median of 244 launches
Price vs a year earlier
−44.1%
four quarters on the four before
Releases, 12 months
384
302 the year before
Upcoming games
798
coming soon on Steam
Games on the store
2,347
carrying both tags

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Visual Novel + Choose Your Own Adventure on each board
BoardValueIntervalSampleStanding
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.0.45%share of upcoming wishlist heat0.27% to 0.66%65 ranked of 799 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026#527 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.0.64xhits against expected0.50x to 0.82x497 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)#5,065 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.+8%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam−6% to +23%117 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months#1,190 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.0%review growth against same-age games−9% to +7%117 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025#831 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits
33
Expected
53.5
Launches
497
Hit rate
6.7%4.9% to 10.3%
Expected rate
10.8%
Against expected
0.64x0.50x to 0.82x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

496 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth
$0
Median
$1,213
Top tenth
$46,419

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months
384
Prior 12 months
302
Change
+27%
Against Steam
−8%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Visual Novel

pairs with Visual Novel
Every pair with Visual Novel

Related niches

pairs with Choose Your Own Adventure
Every pair with Choose Your Own Adventure

Verdicts

in development

GMD Verdicts will be a written read on a niche, built from the same data and the published method on this site. Join the early list and we will email you when the first ones are ready. Nothing on this page is held back while you wait.

Releases

Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.