Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Visual Novel + Historical: 53 releases in the last 12 months

There is no price yet: it needs 30 or more indie paid launches in the last four complete quarters. 7 of 53 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 3.9 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 51% on the year before: 53 against 35.

China market: over 35% of reviews are Chinese

Price: n/a
Price vs a year earlier: n/a
Releases, 12 months: 53
Upcoming games: 105
Games on the store: 288

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Visual Novel + Historical on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	0.02%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.02% to 0.03%	7 ranked of 105 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#3,321 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter. China market: over 35% of reviews are Chinese Listed after unflagged rows on this board	1.45xhits against expected	1.00x to 2.18x	53 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#5,886 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches. China market: over 35% of reviews are Chinese	−5%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	−35% to +28%	15 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#1,583 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal. China market: over 35% of reviews are Chinese	+2%review growth against same-age games	−9% to +13%	15 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#717 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 7
Expected: 3.9

Launches: 53
Hit rate: 13.2%8.5% to 27.8%
Expected rate: 7.3%
Against expected: 1.45x1.00x to 2.18x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

53 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $85
Median: $1,418
Top tenth: $274,415

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 53
Prior 12 months: 35

Change: +51%
Against Steam: +7%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

Visual NovelGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.
HistoricalNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Visual Novel

pairs with Visual Novel

Visual Novel + FMV$65,06531 launches priced, 48 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + LGBTQ+$6,05083 launches priced, 159 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Detective$5,29368 launches priced, 134 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Investigation$4,88542 launches priced, 55 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Immersive Sim$4,55364 launches priced, 115 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Romance$3,639179 launches priced, 277 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Visual Novel

More with Historical

pairs with Historical

Story Rich + Historical$9,68533 launches priced, 53 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Historical$5,28050 launches priced, 124 releases in 12 months
Historical + Wargame$4,50234 launches priced, 56 releases in 12 months
War + Historical$4,39930 launches priced, 43 releases in 12 months
Strategy + Historical$4,25980 launches priced, 157 releases in 12 months
RPG + Historical$4,25039 launches priced, 57 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Historical

Verdicts

in development

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