Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The change shows for genres with 100+ launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Genres 3 Oct
Of 187 genres with 30+ launches at any price, Last 18 months, 117 beat the 1 in 15 base rate. Price moves the odds most: 1 in 238 under $5, 44 in 100 at $20 to $40.117 of 187 genres beat the 1 in 15 base rate.117 beat the base rate.
Typical launch, all prices, first year $552
Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.
Indie paid Steam launches 12 to 36 months old, data 3 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer. The revenue estimate is soft: about 6 to 7.5 in 100 launches overall.
Pairs with the best chance of $100k+, above the base rateFree until launch
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewThe Last 18 months lens is computed across all prices only for now, so this list reads All prices. Pick Standard to read $10 to $20.
187 of 256 genres have 30+ launches at any price, Last 18 months. 74 match the search and chips. Sorted by chance of $100k+, lowest first.
| Rank# | Genre | Chance of $100k+ | Typical year | Top 1 in 10 | Launches | Markers | Pin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games at any price, Last 18 monthsthe base rate: the row to beat | 1 in 151,722 of 26,291 | $552 | not computed | 26,291 | |||
| 1 | Score Attack2 of 168 launches earned $100k+ | 2 of 1682 hits | $249 | not computed | 168 | none | Pin Score Attack |
| 2 | Hidden Object1 in 52 earned $100k+, from 464 launches | 1 in 529 hits | $463 | not computed | 464 | none | Pin Hidden Object |
| 3 | Text-Based3 of 154 launches earned $100k+ | 3 of 1543 hits | $570 | not computed | 154 | none | Pin Text-Based |
| 4 | Top-Down Shooter1 in 45 earned $100k+, from 227 launches | 1 in 455 hits | $268 | not computed | 227 | none | Pin Top-Down Shooter |
| 5 | Runner3 of 136 launches earned $100k+ | 3 of 1363 hits | $107 | not computed | 136 | none | Pin Runner |
| 6 | Incremental1 in 33 earned $100k+, from 393 launches | 1 in 3312 hits | $249 | not computed | 393 | none | Pin Incremental |
| 7 | Walking Simulator1 in 32 earned $100k+, from 415 launches | 1 in 3213 hits | $714 | not computed | 415 | none | Pin Walking Simulator |
| 8 | 2D Platformer1 in 26 earned $100k+, from 684 launches | 1 in 2626 hits | $179 | not computed | 684 | none | Pin 2D Platformer |
| 9 | 3D Platformer1 in 26 earned $100k+, from 443 launches | 1 in 2617 hits | $211 | not computed | 443 | none | Pin 3D Platformer |
| 10 | Puzzle1 in 25 earned $100k+, from 1,493 launches | 1 in 2559 hits | $428 | not computed | 1,493 | none | Pin Puzzle |
| 11 | Cats1 in 25 earned $100k+, from 147 launches | 1 in 256 hits | $655 | not computed | 147 | none | Pin Cats |
| 12 | Point & Click1 in 24 earned $100k+, from 524 launches | 1 in 2422 hits | $490 | not computed | 524 | none | Pin Point & Click |
| 13 | Tabletop1 in 21 earned $100k+, from 146 launches | 1 in 217 hits | $179 | not computed | 146 | none | Pin Tabletop |
| 14 | Thriller1 in 21 earned $100k+, from 144 launches | 1 in 217 hits | $1,066 | not computed | 144 | none | Pin Thriller |
| 15 | Psychological Horror1 in 19 earned $100k+, from 574 launches | 1 in 1930 hits | $1,073 | not computed | 574 | none | Pin Psychological Horror |
| 16 | Real Time Tactics1 in 18 earned $100k+, from 164 launches | 1 in 189 hits | $357 | not computed | 164 | none | Pin Real Time Tactics |
| 17 | Horror1 in 18 earned $100k+, from 884 launches | 1 in 1849 hits | $893 | not computed | 884 | none | Pin Horror |
| 18 | Romance1 in 16 earned $100k+, from 148 launches | 1 in 169 hits | $2,299 | not computed | 148 | none | Pin Romance |
| 19 | Party-Based RPG1 in 16 earned $100k+, from 112 launches | 1 in 167 hits | $1,180 | not computed | 112 | none | Pin Party-Based RPG |
| 20 | Shooter1 in 16 earned $100k+, from 641 launches | 1 in 1641 hits | $321 | not computed | 641 | none | Pin Shooter |
| 21 | Survival Horror1 in 16 earned $100k+, from 233 launches | 1 in 1615 hits | $803 | not computed | 233 | none | Pin Survival Horror |
| 22 | Tower Defense1 in 15 earned $100k+, from 224 launches | 1 in 1515 hits | $375 | not computed | 224 | none | Pin Tower Defense |
| 23 | LGBTQ+1 in 15 earned $100k+, from 104 launches | 1 in 157 hits | $2,654 | not computed | 104 | none | Pin LGBTQ+ |
| 24 | Board Game1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 186 launches | 1 in 1413 hits | $179 | not computed | 186 | none | Pin Board Game |
| 25 | Space1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 185 launches | 1 in 1413 hits | $214 | not computed | 185 | none | Pin Space |
Under 30 launches or 5 hits a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.