Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The change shows for genres with 100+ launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Genres 3 Oct
Of 253 genres with 30+ launches at any price, West-facing view, 142 beat the 1 in 15 base rate. Price moves the odds most: 1 in 238 under $5, 44 in 100 at $20 to $40.142 of 253 genres beat the 1 in 15 base rate.142 beat the base rate.
Typical launch, all prices, first year $552
Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.
Indie paid Steam launches 12 to 36 months old, data 3 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer. The revenue estimate is soft: about 6 to 7.5 in 100 launches overall.
Pairs with the best chance of $100k+, above the base rateFree until launch
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewThe West-facing view lens is computed across all prices only for now, so this list reads All prices. Pick Standard to read $10 to $20.
253 of 256 genres have 30+ launches at any price, West-facing view. 142 match the search and chips. Sorted by chance of $100k+, lowest first.
| Rank# | Genre | Chance of $100k+ | Typical year | Top 1 in 10 | Launches | Markers | Pin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games at any price, West-facing viewthe base rate: the row to beat | 1 in 151,722 of 26,291 | $552 | not computed | 26,291 | |||
| 1 | Satire1 in 15 earned $100k+, from 91 launches | 1 in 156 hits | under 100 | under 100 | 91 | none | Pin Satire |
| 2 | Strategy RPG1 in 15 earned $100k+, from 423 launches | 1 in 1528 hits | $676 | not computed | 423 | none | Pin Strategy RPG |
| 3 | Ninja1 in 15 earned $100k+, from 75 launches | 1 in 155 hits | under 100 | under 100 | 75 | 1-hit | Pin Ninja |
| 4 | Pinball2 of 30 launches earned $100k+ | 2 of 302 hits | under 100 | under 100 | 30 | 1-hitSmall | Pin Pinball |
| 5 | Time Management1 in 15 earned $100k+, from 641 launches | 1 in 1543 hits | $724 | not computed | 641 | Audience | Pin Time Management |
| 6 | Card Game1 in 15 earned $100k+, from 797 launches | 1 in 1554 hits | $663 | not computed | 797 | none | Pin Card Game |
| 7 | Strategy1 in 15 earned $100k+, from 4,307 launches | 1 in 15297 hits | $496 | not computed | 4,307 | none | Pin Strategy |
| 8 | Agriculture1 in 15 earned $100k+, from 116 launches | 1 in 158 hits | $714 | not computed | 116 | none | Pin Agriculture |
| 9 | Gambling1 in 15 earned $100k+, from 87 launches | 1 in 156 hits | under 100 | under 100 | 87 | none | Pin Gambling |
| 10 | Action Roguelike1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 1,659 launches | 1 in 14115 hits | $714 | not computed | 1,659 | none | Pin Action Roguelike |
| 11 | Time Travel1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 72 launches | 1 in 145 hits | under 100 | under 100 | 72 | 1-hit | Pin Time Travel |
| 12 | eSports1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 141 launches | 1 in 1410 hits | $588 | not computed | 141 | 1-hit | Pin eSports |
| 13 | Party-Based RPG1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 364 launches | 1 in 1426 hits | $1,533 | not computed | 364 | none | Pin Party-Based RPG |
| 14 | Science1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 111 launches | 1 in 148 hits | $564 | not computed | 111 | none | Pin Science |
| 15 | Cyberpunk1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 316 launches | 1 in 1423 hits | $945 | not computed | 316 | none | Pin Cyberpunk |
| 16 | Auto Battler1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 342 launches | 1 in 1425 hits | $1,319 | not computed | 342 | none | Pin Auto Battler |
| 17 | Otome1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 82 launches | 1 in 146 hits | under 100 | under 100 | 82 | none | Pin Otome |
| 18 | Wargame1 in 13 earned $100k+, from 388 launches | 1 in 1329 hits | $714 | not computed | 388 | Audience | Pin Wargame |
| 19 | Robots1 in 13 earned $100k+, from 227 launches | 1 in 1317 hits | $394 | not computed | 227 | none | Pin Robots |
| 20 | Dinosaurs1 in 13 earned $100k+, from 80 launches | 1 in 136 hits | under 100 | under 100 | 80 | none | Pin Dinosaurs |
| 21 | Dragons1 in 13 earned $100k+, from 93 launches | 1 in 137 hits | under 100 | under 100 | 93 | 1-hit | Pin Dragons |
| 22 | Romance1 in 13 earned $100k+, from 528 launches | 1 in 1340 hits | $2,265 | not computed | 528 | none | Pin Romance |
| 23 | Steampunk1 in 13 earned $100k+, from 66 launches | 1 in 135 hits | under 100 | under 100 | 66 | none | Pin Steampunk |
| 24 | Nature1 in 13 earned $100k+, from 521 launches | 1 in 1340 hits | $558 | not computed | 521 | none | Pin Nature |
| 25 | Turn-Based Tactics1 in 13 earned $100k+, from 857 launches | 1 in 1366 hits | $766 | not computed | 857 | none | Pin Turn-Based Tactics |
Under 30 launches or 5 hits a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.