Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Niches / Open World + Simulation
Open World + Simulation
Games tagged both Open World and Simulation: 243 indie paid launches, 52 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Open World + Simulation priced $10 to $20, last 18 months. Lens figures exist at all prices only, so inside a price band the page shows the standard figures.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
Open World + Simulation beats both its tags: 34.2 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 26.6 in 100 for Open World and 21.5 in 100 for Simulation.
That is about 1.8 times the 18.6 in 100 expected for any launch at this price. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this band uses the standard figures.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 42.4 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 76 games tagged both Open World and Simulation priced $10 to $20. 34.2 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 24.1 for Open World-only games and 20.4 for Simulation-only games, so games with both tags did better than games with either tag alone.
Both: 76 games priced $10 to $20; 34.2 in 100 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $40,509.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 76 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet. The last 18 months lens is not computed for the outer parts, so this diagram uses the standard figures.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: those with a mostly Chinese audience, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Open World + Simulation holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view231 of 243 launches | Without the breakout242 of 243 launches | Last 18 months131 of 243 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 24352 hits | 23149 hits | 24251 hits | 13122 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 21.4 in 100 | 21.2 in 100 | 21.1 in 100 | 16.8 in 100 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $3,963top tenth $1,028,289+ | $4,248 | $3,963 | $3,151 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -0.9%0.2 fewer in 100 | -1.4%0.3 fewer in 100 | -21.5%4.6 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | +7.2%$285 more | 0.0%no change | -20.5%$812 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Open World and Simulation, 6 to 30 months old: 243 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 12 of 243 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Schedule I (44.1% of the money): 242 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 131 of 243.
Open World holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| Open World | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view877 of 926 launches | Without the breakout925 of 926 launches | Last 18 months474 of 926 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 926151 hits | 877142 hits | 925150 hits | 47471 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 16.3 in 100 | 16.2 in 100 | 16.2 in 100 | 15.0 in 100 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $2,103top tenth $336,387+ | $2,185 | $2,062 | $1,943 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -0.6%0.1 fewer in 100 | -0.6%0.1 fewer in 100 | -8.0%1.3 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | +3.9%$82 more | -1.9%$41 less | -7.6%$160 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Open World, 6 to 30 months old: 926 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 49 of 926 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Schedule I (28.6% of the money): 925 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 474 of 926.
Simulation holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| Simulation | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view5,023 of 5,285 launches | Without the breakout5,284 of 5,285 launches | Last 18 months3,070 of 5,285 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 5,285435 hits | 5,023411 hits | 5,284434 hits | 3,070225 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 8.2 in 1001 in 12 | 8.2 in 1001 in 12 | 8.2 in 1001 in 12 | 7.3 in 1001 in 14 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $982top tenth $69,988+ | $1,012 | $982 | $971 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change | -11.0%0.9 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | +3.1%$30 more | 0.0%no change | -1.1%$11 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Simulation, 6 to 30 months old: 5,285 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 262 of 5,285 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Schedule I (15.4% of the money): 5,284 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 3,070 of 5,285.
A lens holds when chance and typical earnings both stay within 25% of standard. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Open World + Simulation moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.