Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The change shows for genres with 100+ launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Niches / Open World + Simulation
Open World + Simulation
Games tagged both Open World and Simulation: 217 indie paid launches, 55 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Open World + Simulation priced $10 to $20, west-facing view. Lens figures exist at all prices only, so inside a price band the page shows the standard figures.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
Open World + Simulation beats both its tags: 39.1 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 27.8 in 100 for Open World and 20.9 in 100 for Simulation.
That is about 2.2 times the 17.6 in 100 expected for any launch at this price. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this band uses the standard figures.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 40.0 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 64 games tagged both Open World and Simulation priced $10 to $20. 39.1 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 24.3 in 100 for Open World-only games and 19.5 in 100 for Simulation-only games, so games with both tags did better than games with either tag alone.
Both: 64 games priced $10 to $20; 39.1 in 100 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $41,029.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 64 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet. The west-facing view lens is not computed for the outer parts, so this diagram uses the standard figures.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Open World + Simulation holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view207 of 217 launches | Without the breakout216 of 217 launches | Last 18 months65 of 217 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 21755 hits | 20754 hits | 21654 hits | 6513 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 25.3 in 100 | 26.1 in 100 | 25.0 in 100 | 20.0 in 100 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $4,801top tenth $1,140,085+ | $5,431 | $4,801 | $3,446 |
| Chance against standard | the base | +2.9%0.7 more in 100 | -1.4%0.3 fewer in 100 | -21.1%5.3 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | +13.1%$630 more | 0.0%no change | -28.2%$1,355 less; too few to tell |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Open World and Simulation, 12 to 36 months old: 217 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 10 of 217 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Schedule I (47.4% of the money): 216 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 65 of 217.
Open World holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.
| Open World | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view819 of 861 launches | Without the breakout860 of 861 launches | Last 18 months222 of 861 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 861153 hits | 819146 hits | 860152 hits | 22239 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 17.8 in 100 | 17.8 in 100 | 17.7 in 100 | 17.6 in 100 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $1,856top tenth $355,406+ | $1,914 | $1,856 | $2,317 |
| Chance against standard | the base | +0.3%0.1 more in 100 | -0.5%0.1 fewer in 100 | -1.1%0.2 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | +3.1%$58 more | 0.0%no change | +24.8%$461 more |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Open World, 12 to 36 months old: 861 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 42 of 861 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Palworld (31.1% of the money): 860 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 222 of 861.
Simulation holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.
| Simulation | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view4,193 of 4,444 launches | Without the breakout4,443 of 4,444 launches | Last 18 months1,387 of 4,444 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 4,444370 hits | 4,193351 hits | 4,443369 hits | 1,387117 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 8.3 in 1001 in 12 | 8.4 in 1001 in 12 | 8.3 in 1001 in 12 | 8.4 in 1001 in 12 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $877top tenth $69,001+ | $941 | $876 | $956 |
| Chance against standard | the base | +0.5%no change | -0.2%no change | +1.3%0.1 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | +7.3%$64 more | -0.1%$1 less | +9.0%$79 more |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Simulation, 12 to 36 months old: 4,444 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 251 of 4,444 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Schedule I (17.6% of the money): 4,443 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,387 of 4,444.
A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Open World + Simulation moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
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